Hull City have been one of the most fascinating teams in England this season.

Predicted by many to finish in the Championship’s bottom three back in August after surviving relegation on goal difference, Hull still have a decent shot at promotion.

The Tigers entered the top six on 10 December and have largely stayed there ever since.

So are Hull City the luckiest team in the country this season, or is the model itself that judges this overperformance failing to properly assess their greatest strengths?

The numbers are indeed silly…

Hull rank 19th for shots in the Championship and fourth for goals scored. They have had fewer touches in the opposition penalty area this season than Leicester City, their opponents on Tuesday night who have been relegated.

Fine, you say, they’re probably a very good defensive team. Well, not according to the raw numbers. Hull have allowed 653 shots – only Charlton Athletic and Sheffield Wednesday have allowed more. They have conceded the fourth most goals in the division too, so it’s not like they aren’t being punished.

And we have to refer back to that xG differential: not only would it have Hull 23rd in the Championship, they would be five goals worse off than 22nd on that particular measure. This is weird.

…but remember what xG really is

Expected goals is a measure of chances according to averages taken across vast swathes of data. It provides a useful level by which we can judge overperformance or underperformance over a period of time. For those who say “well this player is better than average,” yes! If xG accounted for every variable then it would not need to exist. You’d simply have the final score.

Hull have indeed been quite fortunate, in isolation and across a whole season. There is a wonderful homemade compilation of all the missed chances against them that I urge you to watch below. Many of those misses came at crucial times of crucial matches and them not being taken allowed Hull to generate momentum and belief that began to feel unshakeable.

But Hull are also good; you tend to generate your own luck when you play to your strengths, minimise your weaknesses and maximise the impact of your best players. And that’s exactly what Sergej Jakirovic has done.

Counter-attacking kings

Hull might concede an awful lot of shots, but that is a deliberate strategy. They sacrifice possession (ranking 20th by that measure) and territory, allowing opponents into their own penalty area and even to shoot (from low-value areas, ideally). They aim to win possession and, when they do, aim to attack at speed.

And they’re really good at it. Hull might rank 19th for shots but they rank sixth for shots from counter attacks and ninth for total shots on target. And when they choose to, the high press works too: only Ipswich have scored more goals from winning the ball in their final third of the pitch.

When you counter attack efficiently, the chances you create tend to be better because opposition defences are not set. Before Tuesday evening, 95 of Hull’s 480 shots were classified as big chances by Opta. By way of comparison, Middlesbrough’s total was 96 big chances from 694 shots.

A magnificent front two

We have shown that Hull have a strategy for allowing lots of shots and taking far less, maximising quality and forgetting about quantity. Their goals per shot is the second best in the league; their goals per touches in the box is the best.

But last summer they also signed the perfect strike partnership for the plan: Joe Gelhardt and Oli McBurnie, a retro little and large pair. To understand how efficiently Hull have serviced both strikers, know this; McBurnie and Gelhardt both rank in the top five players for individual xG in the Championship.

To supercharge that service, the two strikers have also outperformed expectations. McBurnie and Gelhardt have a combined 29 league goals from 22 xG. Jakirovic has found something that works and that few opposition managers have been able to stop.

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Game state is a thing

There is another explanation for Hull’s regular overperformance: they need to attack less than most other teams. Jakirovic’s side have scored first in 26 league games this season, second only to Coventry City.

Also look at when Hull score their goals. No team in the Championship has scored more in the first 30 minutes of matches and only Southampton and Coventry have spent a higher proportion of their matches leading.

If you score first and do not have vast strength in depth, you tend to sit back and your opponents will have more shots than you. That isn’t a reason for criticism, it’s a logical progression.

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