When Lincoln Riley came to SoCal, he came with a promise of delivering a natty after going 55-10 during his tenure in Norman. After five years of not even making the playoffs, with embarrassment on the line, the USC Trojans football reporter had enough and practically begged Riley to make the playoffs for one overlooked reason only.
The overlooked reason Matt Zemek is stressing is that 2026 is the final “prestige” year for the College Football Playoff. Right now, the field is set at 12 teams, but there’s diabolical pressure from the big conferences to expand to 14 or even 24 teams by 2027.
Former Tennessee Volunteers football head coach Phillip Fulmer believes it would only benefit undeserving teams. Before his yearly golf event, Fulmer spoke about the issue:
“I don’t know what they’re going to do. (SEC) commissioner (Greg) Sankey is pretty dead set on sticking with 16 teams (in an anticipated expansion). I think that’s a good number. But if you go to 24, you might as well let everybody in because you’re almost taking the whole top 25. I wouldn’t like that.”
In simple terms, Fulmer believes a 16-team playoff still makes it hard to qualify and keeps the regular season important. But if the playoff grows to 24 teams, he thinks too many teams would get in, making the postseason less special and less competitive.
The last thing USC wants is a charity spot and pointed at by rivals saying, “They are only here because the CFP committee made it easy for them by expanding the field.” So, if Lincoln Riley fails to qualify in 2026 and only makes it later when the field is doubled, it won’t count as a “win” in the eyes of the public.
The USC writer argues that critics will just claim USC snuck in because the “bar was lowered” to let more mediocre teams in, rather than Riley actually building a powerhouse that can compete with the elite top-10 programs in the country.
Fans across the South are a bit cynical when it comes to Riley’s diminishing returns while earning a top-4 or top-6 coach’s salary.
Riley is pocketing roughly $11.5 million a year, and by 2026, USC will have invested over $50 million into him personally. Not to mention the millions spent on his assistant coaches and the new support staff. For Riley to avoid the “overpaid” label, Zemek says he has to justify that “bang for the buck” by hitting the 12-team playoff mark before the postseason becomes a “participation trophy” for any three- or four-loss team in a major conference.
Since it’s his Year 5, Riley will have an entire roster of guys he recruited, including the legendary 2026 class that is currently ranked No. 1 in the nation. Word is, they got 17 starters returning, the most in the Big Ten Conference, which is around 56% snaps from the 2025 season. Among that, all five starting offensive linemen from last season shall return, a group that allowed only 15 sacks in 2025, the 12th-fewest in the nation.
And many analysts believe redshirt senior Jayden Maiava will reach his pinnacle this season. At last, on top of that, Riley finally swallowed his pride and hired a defensive mastermind in Gary Patterson, one of the greatest defensive minds of the 20th and 21st centuries.
There’s no head coach in America, college or professional, who has gotten more from the administration than Riley at USC. So if he can’t crack a 12-team field with a “perfect” setup, it proves maybe he doesn’t deserve a top-5 head coach salary or, apparently, the head coaching gig at a natty-caliber program.
Can they do it in the big 2026?
The Trojan War of their own?
After missing the CFP in his first four years, the bookies aren’t really big on USC. Vegas has them at the 15th-best odds (+270) to make the 12-team field. They are behind the likes of Oregon Ducks football, Ohio State Buckeyes football, Indiana Hoosiers football, Michigan Wolverines football, and Penn State Nittany Lions football, probably.
Mind you, only three or four teams from the Big Ten can make the playoffs in the 12-team era setting. And intriguingly, Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are the usual suspects for the playoff each year. Given his track record against top-25 opponents (6-13 record), the chances are pretty slim, to say the least.
Vegas projected their total wins at 8.5 games. Since they are playing the usual suspects (OSU, the Ducks, Indiana), along with Penn State and Washington/UCLA, it’s only fair to assume Riley has to win at least three of these five heavyweight bouts to finish 10-2 to make the playoffs.
If he goes 1-4 or 2-3 against the big boys, he might still make a future 24-team playoff. But he won’t have proven he can actually beat the elite teams USC fans were promised when he arrived. So yeah, Riley needs to create his own Trojan War and deliver the biggest season of his coaching career.
