A little over three years ago, Baker Mayfield was struggling to find a rhythm after multiple teams moved on from him. Fast forward to now, and he’s approaching a massive contract extension as he enters the final year of his three-year, $100 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Which raises the obvious question of when things truly turned around for the former first-overall pick after those difficult seasons. Maxx Crosby may have just pointed to that exact moment.

“That was heartbreaking, that was literally an axe just going straight on the center of my skull,” Crosby said, addressing Mayfield’s first game as a Los Angeles Rams quarterback against the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022. “Jerry Tillery, to this day, literally put Baker Mayfield back on the map.”

Crosby was referring to the 2022 season, when the Rams claimed Mayfield off waivers after the Carolina Panthers moved on from him. Just 48 hours later, Los Angeles threw him straight into the lineup.

The situation wasn’t exactly ideal. Mayfield had barely any time to learn the playbook and was without key receivers like Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Unsurprisingly, the offense struggled early, with the Raiders building a 16-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter.

Then things flipped. After Daniel Carlson extended the lead with his third field goal, Mayfield responded with a 75-yard drive, capped by a short touchdown run from Cam Akers. That cut it to 16-10.

The Rams’ defense got a stop on Derek Carr, but a 64-yard punt from AJ Cole pinned them at their own 2-yard line with under two minutes left. From there, Mayfield led a 98-yard drive, completing 5 of 6 passes for 80 yards, and found Van Jefferson for a 23-yard touchdown with just 10 seconds remaining.

The Rams won 17-16.

On the surface, it was one of the most improbable late-game drives of the season. But there was another layer to it. The Raiders committed seven penalties for 94 yards, including a critical moment late in the fourth quarter when Jerry Tillery knocked the ball out of Mayfield’s hands after a sack. That resulted in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, extending the drive.

From there, Mayfield connected with Ben Skowronek for 32 yards before the game-winning touchdown to Jefferson. In just 48 hours, a waiver claim, a chaotic setup, and a key penalty combined to shift the trajectory of his career.

“I don’t know if you could write it any better than that,” Mayfield said. “Obviously, we’d like to be a little bit more stress-free, but it’s a pretty damn good story, I’ll be honest with you.”

And that moment carried forward. After the 2022 season, the Buccaneers signed Mayfield to a one-year, $4 million deal. He responded with one of the best seasons of his career in 2023, throwing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions while completing 64.3% of his passes.

That performance earned him a three-year, $100 million contract ahead of the 2024 season. He followed it up with even better numbers, posting a career-high 71.4% completion rate along with 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.

Even this past season, with some statistical dip to 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, and a 63.2% completion rate, he remained productive, especially while playing without Mike Evans for nine games.

In the bigger picture, that single sequence in 2022, including Tillery’s penalty, played a role in putting Mayfield back into the spotlight. From there, everything else followed, including a $100 million deal and now the possibility of an even bigger one.

The Buccaneers are preparing for Baker Mayfield’s contract extension

Since becoming the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield holds a 27-24 record in the regular season and is 1-2 in the postseason. While the team missed the playoffs last year, his overall performance has still been strong enough to earn the confidence of ownership as he enters the final year of his current deal.

In fact, co-owner Joel Glazer has already indicated that an extension is likely coming sooner rather than later.

“Everybody loves him. If the QB’s making top money, then your team is probably doing well and the QB’s performing well. That doesn’t hurt at all to write that check, it’s something that all the teams do when you have good QBs,” Glazer said via Pewter Report.

TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 03: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Baker Mayfield 6 scrambles for yardage during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on January 03, 2026 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire NFL: JAN 03 Panthers at Buccaneers EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon357260103021

That naturally shifts the conversation to the numbers. Mayfield is currently earning around $33 million per year, which places him 19th among quarterbacks. At the same time, his production has been comparable to, or in some cases better than, higher-paid names like Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence.

So at this stage, it’s less about whether Tampa Bay extends him and more about when it gets done. With the draft approaching, the expectation is that the Buccaneers will likely turn their full attention to Mayfield’s extension shortly after the 2026 NFL Draft.