Since we’re already deep into the offseason, time is the one thing CFB analysts are not short on. That means it’s time for the annual speculation and predictions. So, one of college football’s most iconic analysts, Brett McMurphy, released his own post-spring bowl projections, and the Alabama Crimson Tide football and LSU Tigers football may have a rude awakening coming.
It’s almost surreal to see the On3 analyst predict that both teams will be watching from the sidelines during the playoffs. Instead, both are projected to land in traditional consolation matchups: the Duke’s Mayo Bowl for the Roll Tide against the Clemson Tigers football and the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl for the LSU Tigers football against Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes football.
Truth be told, both of these programs are entering a situation where anything less than a trophy is a failure. So being relegated to these mid-tier bowls would have at least one of the head coaches fired before the next season. It most likely won’t be Lane Kiffin.
However, the spotlight is brightest on LSU, and for pretty good reason. All thanks to the most anticipated head coach hiring in 10 years, Lane Kiffin.
The Tigers constructed what many insiders call a $40 million roster. Not to mention, with that money, they landed the nation’s No. 1 transfer portal class, including Sam Leavitt, the nation’s No. 1 QB in the portal, and OT Jordan Seaton.
NEW: 2026 Post-Spring College Football Bowl Projections via @Brett_McMurphy
More: https://t.co/vm151AS3aS pic.twitter.com/WxrBJ1bmRV
— On3 (@On3) May 6, 2026
Now, given that the university and its boosters invested so much capital into Lane Kiffin’s “win-now” window, missing a 12-team playoff to play Iowa in Orlando would be seen as a diabolical failure, to say the least.
Yes, Lane Kiffin is known for his ‘Portal King’ reputation, and he has half a decade’s worth of results to back it up. But unfortunately, McMurphy’s projection pretty much says that buying talent doesn’t always guarantee chemistry. Since they have Clemson, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M early on the road, it’s kind of hard to see LSU football having maximum chemistry by then.
Then again, take it with a grain of salt. Kiffin always delivers. He has done more with less, so it’s only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt. Even if he fails to deliver, the Tigers are not going to hit him with a buyout.
Meanwhile, Alabama finds itself in an uncharacteristically vulnerable position as they prepare for Year 3 under Kalen DeBoer.
McMurphy seems to think their roster is just too young and inexperienced to survive a brutal SEC schedule. The team is expected to start between five and seven freshmen or sophomores. They have to face Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU back-to-back. The Crimson Tide lost their starting quarterback, top rusher, and four starting offensive linemen to the NFL and the transfer portal. So just like that, Kalen DeBoer finishes the season with a dub over Clemson in the Mayo Bowl.
So who shall actually take their spots? The projections have teams like Texas, Georgia, and Texas A&M representing the SEC in the big dance.
Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, and Oregon will make it from the Big Ten. McMurphy has North Dakota State snagging the No. 12 bracket spot.
End of the day, these are just spring projections, and a lot can change once the pads come on. At the same time, it serves as a wake-up call for LSU and Alabama fans. However, Paul Finebaum has the “overrated label” waiting for Lane Kiffin if he makes the playoffs.
Paul Finebaum goes off on Lane Kiffin
The ESPN analyst has been pulling no punches lately, especially when it comes to Lane Kiffin. Just this morning on the Crain & Cone podcast, Finebaum was hit with this question: “Who’s the most overrated head coach in CFB?”
Finebaum began with diplomatic answers and considered Kalen DeBoer and Steve Sarkisian legitimate head coaches. But when David Cone tried to double down on him, Finebaum let it rip:
“The most intriguing name on whether he’s overrated or not is Lane Kiffin, and I think a year from today, if you have me back and Lane Kiffin has not made the playoffs, I would put him at the top of the list, because it’s so hard to give him total credit for what happened last year.”
The reason Kiffin is not getting his credit is that he “chickened out” last year from Ole Miss Rebels for Baton Rouge. After leading Ole Miss to their best season in the history of the program, Lane Kiffin bailed when they needed him the most: a game against a top-10 team. Since he has a poor record against top-10 teams, it’s hard for Finebaum to place him highly. Lane Kiffin is basically the SEC’s James Franklin. The only catch here is that he doesn’t get enough hate for it because Ole Miss isn’t as big as Penn State.
Finebaum is basically giving Kiffin one final chance to prove he belongs in the elite category. If he finishes 2026 in the Citrus Bowl, as the projections suggest, Finebaum is ready to officially label him the “most overrated” coach in the country.
