There is a lot of talk leading up to the 2026 NFL draft that the talent at the top doesn’t compare to that in the past or to next year’s in 2027. Many don’t feel like there is true “blue chip” talent at the top of this draft, meaning players who are “can’t-miss” talents with the ability to make an immediate impact at the next level.
Why is that?
A main reason supporting this narrative is the No. 2 overall pick. Typically, a week out, everyone knows who the second pick of the draft will be. This year, it feels like no one knows who will go to the New York Jets with the second pick.
In 2025, it was Travis Hunter after Cam Ward. 2024 was Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels after Caleb Williams. 2023 was CJ Stroud after Bryce Young. Looking at this year, there isn’t a clear-cut option at No. 2; you could make an argument for Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Sonny Styles and even Carnell Tate.
Edge Rushers at the Top
Edge rushers usually dominate the top of the draft just like quarterbacks. They’re rated higher than most defensive positions, and that’s because of the impact they can have on a game. There isn’t a true “blue chip” edge at the top of this class. In the last five years, we’ve had names like Abdul Carter, Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux as some of the top names in their respective draft classes. Now there were questions about them, but not as prevalent as the edges this year.
Bailey has concerns about his size, Rueben Bain Jr. about his arm length and teams are concerned about taking Akheem Mesidor early because of his age. There is no real “can’t-miss” edge in this class, which is a real reason why many don’t consider this draft top-heavy.
There’s a reason why the Arizona Cardinals have been rumored to trade down from the third overall pick: they can live with missing one of these guys or even one of the offensive tackles at the top. The talent in those positions just isn’t there, leading teams at the top to want to move down, with Arizona being one.
Each one of the top edges in this class has hurdles to jump through to prove to teams why they are worth a first-round pick. No one knows how their careers will play out, but leading up to draft night, there have been tons of questions about what they can bring to an NFL field.
The same thing can be said about the offensive tackles in this class. There are a ton of intriguing ones, but all have questions surrounding them.
Which Positions have the Talent?
There is a real possibility we see a running back, linebacker and safety taken in the top 10 of the first round this year. Of the 16 positions in the league, the 13th, 11th, and 8th-highest-paid positions by average salary are running back, linebacker, and safety, respectively. That’s a big reason we don’t typically see players other than quarterbacks, offensive tackles, edge rushers and receivers taken in the top 10. It’s all a cap space game for NFL teams: which position can they get for cheaper, since those players are on rookie contracts?
Take the last draft, for example. If we just look at the average money per year, the Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty is the 13th highest paid back in the league – he was taken sixth overall last year. Carter was taken third and is the 34th-highest-paid edge, ranked by average salary per year.
It’s rare to see other positions taken in the top 10. In 2018, we saw a running back, a guard and an inside linebacker taken in the top 10. Those players were Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson and Roquan Smith who all seemed to work out. In 2017, we saw two running backs and a safety taken in the top 10: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Jamal Adams. Doesn’t happen often, but in some draft classes, the talent is just in the lower-paid positions at the top of the draft.
Bringing it back to 2026, the real “blue chip” talent is in those cheaper positions. Running back Jeremiyah Love, Styles and safety Caleb Downs all have the talent to be taken high in this draft. The main reason people consider this draft not as talented as others is just the positions they play, but no doubt they have the talent to make an impact from Day 1 in NFL buildings.
Lack of Quarterback Buzz
Since 2000, the average number of quarterbacks taken in the first round is 3.05. The media surrounding the NFL is used to talking about three or four quarterbacks who could be picked in the first round. 2024 was the golden year for this when we had six quarterbacks taken in the first half of the night, and that class was headlined by Williams, who was a sought-after prospect leading up to the draft.
This year, it’s just Indiana’s, Fernando Mendoza. After that, Alabama’s Ty Simpson has got some consideration, but it feels more likely he’ll go on Day 2.
The lack of quarterback talent is another reason people have turned their heads to the 2027 class, calling it much better. It’s projected to be loaded with talents like Arch Manning, Dante Moore and LaNorris Sellers. Will all those guys work out? No one knows, but the upside is there.
Mendoza has earned the right to be the top pick in this class with his Heisman trophy and National Championship season, but he doesn’t have the upside like other top prospects, like a Williams, who, maybe wasn’t as refined as Mendoza as a passer, but can make jaw-dropping plays as we saw in the playoffs last season.
Outlook
We’ve seen teams prepare for the 2027 draft by trying to attain compensatory picks for next year and even teams like the Jets asking for the Dallas Cowboys 2027 first-round pick in the Quinnen Williams trade. They know next year will have greater talent, but does it doesn’t mean teams should fully punt this years draft. There is still quality talent within the draft and players who can be solid contributors for years to come.
Is there true “blue chip” talent at the top of this draft? No, but only if you’re looking at it by positional value. Styles, Love, Downs and even offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane are fantastic players. They’ll make an impact on Day 1, but it’s not the typical impact fans are used to at the top of the draft. Looking at the positions that have value, the top prospects in those positions just have concerns. We talked about edges and quarterbacks, but with receivers, Tate lacks true route-running and polish; Jordyn Tyson has injury concerns; and Makai Lemon is a slot receiver.
Offensive tackles are the same. Is Francis Mauigoa a tackle or guard? Will Spencer Fano’s arm length let him survive at the NFL level? Max Iheanachor and Monroe Freeling are both developmental tackles. Way too many questions for the top prospects, and the more valued positions in the league, are how we got to this narrative about the 2026 NFL draft.
