T. J. Otzelberger has taken two-seed Iowa State to the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last five years now. And while they won comfortably over Mark Pope’s Kentucky, Joshua Jefferson’s absence could affect their NCAA Tournament aspirations going ahead.
Transferring to Iowa State from St. Mary’s in 2024, his head coach immediately thrust the ‘6’ 9″ Forward, Joshua Jefferson into the starting five, and he repaid the faith with his overall impact on the floor.
However, we might have seen the last of Jefferson in college basketball after the senior forward’s injury.
What Happened to Joshua Jefferson and How Big Is the Loss?
Joshua Jefferson injured his ankle early in the first-round NCAA Tournament game against Tennessee State. The 22-year-old didn’t come out afterwards for the rest of the game and also sat out the second round win against Kentucky.
T. J. Otzelberger provided an update on Jefferson and highlighted, “He has an MRI scheduled for (Monday) at 11 a.m., so we’ll see how that goes.”
The 22-year-old is currently day-to-day for the upcoming Sweet 16 game, and Otzelberger hopes he will recover in time to face Tennessee.
A senior forward, Joshua Jefferson, is arguably Iowa State’s most influential player, acting almost as a two-way guard for the Cyclones because of his vision, scoring, and rebounding ability. While Milan Momcilovic is Iowa State’s go-to man for three-pointers, Jefferson makes the offense tick, with his usage being one of the highest on the floor.
How Has Iowa State Performed Without Jefferson So Far?
Iowa State got the job done against Kentucky, with Jefferson’s absence filled by Nate Heise. The guard has been like a ‘6th starter’ for the Cyclones this year, and stepped up once again to compensate for the injured Jefferson as he focuses on his recovery process.
Heise scored 12 points in 36 minutes on the floor, and did it without forcing bad shots, ending the night with a 5-of-8 shooting performance. The defense looked solid without the 22-year-old, too.
But Jefferson’s absence was reflected in Iowa State’s rebounding numbers. The Cyclones barely edged Kentucky 31-30 in rebounding, and while it was a comfortable win, Otzelberger would hope Jefferson returns to maintain their rebounding prowess against Tennessee and, potentially, other opponents in the NCAA Tournament.
What Adjustments Will TJ Otzelberger Need to Make?
If Jefferson is unavailable against Tennessee, Otzelberger could utilize Momcilovic more to draw attention to the outside of the perimeter early on. The Serbian-American is averaging 4 three-pointers made per game, and an early barrage from outside could set the game up nicely for Iowa State and render the potential rebounding deficit moot.
With Heise coming into the lineup, Otzelberger could rely on more screens to set his players up, especially with the starting five now boasting a guard majority against Tennessee. The advantage gained in floor movement will aid Iowa State’s quest to shut down Tennessee stars like Ja’Kobi Gillespie, preventing him from getting easy looks from behind the arc.
Apart from that, the Iowa State head coach believes in his way and is unlikely to oversee any drastic changes on the floor, especially in terms of ball movement and defensive focus.
Can Iowa State Still Make a Deep March Madness Run Without Him?
Senior guard Tamin Lipsey is peaking at the right time of the year for Iowa State. Despite Jefferson being a huge two-way miss for the Cyclones, Milan Momcilovic has shown he can step up and be the difference for Iowa State consistently. The Cyclones should do considerably well against Tennessee even without Jefferson, especially with how the defense fared against Kentucky in his absence.
Otzelberger knows that, while Jefferson is a big miss, the road to a deep run is rooted in consistency, and he will tell his players exactly that. We are unlikely to see significant changes to the playstyle Iowa State has championed, and its laser-focused defense will hold the key against Tennessee and beyond.
The Iowa State Cyclones could be in with a realistic chance of entering the Elite Eight. However, Michigan or Alabama will probably prove too much for Otzelberger’s men without Jefferson.
