Maybe shows and movies can take a backseat for now because Netflix is actively trying to expand its NFL package from 2 games to 4 games as rights are renegotiated. Amid the bidding wars and raised prices, Hollywood is feeling especially vulnerable.
Hollywood used to dominate entertainment spending, but now has to compete with live sports and streaming platforms, among other things. And sports are winning that competition because they guarantee viewers, attract advertisers, and are watched live. Movies and shows simply don’t guarantee any of that. So, yes, it does make sense how biz news expert Matthew Belloni believes the NFL’s broadcasting rights could emerge as a major thorn for Hollywood in the coming years:
“MoffettNathanson is out with a new report predicting the average annual value of NFL rights deals will rise to $15.9 billion after renegotiations—including the carve-outs of additional smaller packages, likely to sell to Netflix or YouTube,” Belloni wrote for Puck News. “That’s 58 percent higher than the current deals, and here’s the key line: ‘We expect media companies will be forced to offset higher NFL costs through a reallocation of content budgets, mitigating the EBITDA impact.’ That’s analyst-speak for, Do you hear that giant sucking sound? It’s film and TV cash being hoovered up by the NFL.”
The NFL’s current broadcast partners (CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Amazon Prime Video) already pay more than $10 billion per year for rights that run through 2033, with an opt-out clause after the 2029–30 season. When additional packages like Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV and the league’s limited Netflix inventory are factored in, the total climbs even higher. And that money comes directly out of the same content budgets that once supported scripted television and film development.
The scale of that commitment becomes clearer when looking at how deeply the NFL already shapes network spending.
The NFL’s current effort to squeeze more cash from the networks could mean less money will be available for TV and film projects. https://t.co/T5nQJUEpsH
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 4, 2026
Fox, for example, pays roughly $2.3 billion annually for league rights alone, even before accounting for production costs. Its total content spending sat at about $8.1 billion in 2024 and rose to around $9.2 billion the following year because of the Super Bowl cycle. That means more than a quarter of Fox’s overall programming budget is tied up in NFL coverage for a slate of games that primarily occupy Sunday afternoons across a five-month window each year.
And the league is now positioning itself to ask for more.
Part of that confidence comes from the ratings gap between the NFL and everything else on television. NBC recently agreed to pay roughly $2.5 billion per year for its share of the NBA’s new media package, even though Sunday Night Football alone averaged about 23.5 million viewers last season. NBA games on NBC this year, by comparison, have averaged closer to 2.6 million viewers. From the league’s standpoint, that disparity makes a strong case that its next rights cycle should command even higher fees than the current agreements already deliver.
Those negotiations may arrive sooner than expected. Paramount’s pending Skydance acquisition triggered a change-of-control clause inside CBS’s deal with the NFL, allowing conversations to open ahead of schedule. That early window matters because it gives the league an opportunity to bring deep-pocketed streamers like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and YouTube more directly into the process. Each of them is looking for additional live sports inventory as competition for subscribers intensifies, and even a small standalone package of games can suddenly become very valuable leverage at the negotiating table.
From the networks’ perspective, that creates a difficult equation. The NFL is one piece of programming they simply cannot afford to lose. It delivers the largest consistent audiences on television, anchors advertising revenue, and stabilizes subscriber retention in a media environment where everything else feels increasingly unpredictable. When rights fees go up, walking away isn’t really an option. Adjusting spending elsewhere usually is.
That’s where the concern inside Hollywood begins to take shape. Analysts at MoffettNathanson have already warned that higher NFL costs will likely be offset through “reallocation of content budgets,” which in practical terms means less money flowing into scripted entertainment and films. Even a shift of a few billion dollars across the industry would be felt quickly, especially at a time when studios are already adjusting to tighter streaming economics and changing theatrical returns.
And the ripple effects wouldn’t stop with Hollywood. Other sports leagues are watching closely as well. If the next round of NFL negotiations absorbs a larger share of network spending, leagues like Major League Baseball, NASCAR, and the PGA Tour could find themselves competing for a shrinking slice of the remaining rights budget. That possibility is one reason so many organizations across the sports media landscape are trying to finalize their own deals before the NFL resets the market again.
For now, though, the league holds the strongest hand at the table. With partnerships already spanning ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, there are more potential bidders than ever before, and that alone gives the NFL unusual leverage as the next phase of media rights negotiations begins to unfold.
Disney put forth ambitious plans to revolutionize Super Bowl coverage in 2027
With Disney and ABC broadcasting the Big Game next year, the telecommunications giant is planning a massive ‘multi-cast’ strategy by leveraging its biggest personalities to create a worthy experience for every fan demographic. 2027 will be the first time in 21 years that ABC and Disney, with ESPN, will telecast the biggest game on the NFL calendar.
Hence, the network is planning to create a Super Bowl Field Pass with The Pat McAfee Show, similar to the popular alternative broadcast during the College Football Playoff,” as per Front Office Sports’ Michael McCarthy. ” Simultaneously, the ‘MegaCast’ strategy is expected to include Omaha Productions’ ManningCast, who have officially locked in for ESPN2. The show will continue to be led by NFL Hall of Famers Peyton and Eli Manning with bring their unscripted yet astute analysis of the championship stage.
Disney is al a youth-oriented ‘KidsCast’ which will use real-time animation technology similar to the viral Toy Story Funday Football presentation.
The NFL’s rise shows no signs of slowing down, and its financial grip on the broadcasting world will only tighten in the years ahead. Hollywood may feel the squeeze as networks prioritize football over film and television budgets. Yet, with Disney’s ambitious Super Bowl plans for 2027, the line between sports and entertainment looks set to blur more than ever.
